BCA Research

USBS Views

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">USBS Views</span> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/7556" title="View user profile.">kevin.nam@bcar…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-20T17:09:41-04:00" title="Wednesday, May 20, 2026 - 17:09">Wed, 05/20/2026 - 17:09</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-field-spreadsheet field--type-file field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Excel Sheet</div> <div class="field__item"> <span class="file file--mime-application-vnd-openxmlformats-officedocument-spreadsheetml-sheet file--x-office-spreadsheet"> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/system/files/2026-05/USBS%20views_2026_05_20.xlsx" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet">USBS views_2026_05_20.xlsx</a></span> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-rows field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Rows</div> <div class="field__items"> <div class="field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--view-row paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="field field--name-field-group field--type-string field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Group</div> <div class="field__item">Positioning</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-row field--type-string field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Row</div> <div class="field__item">Portfolio Duration</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-initiation-date field--type-string field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Initiation Date</div> <div class="field__item">25 Jul 2024</div> </div> <div class="fiel

Trades

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Trades</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Product</div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/usbs/home" hreflang="en">US Bond Strategy</a></div> </div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><span>Anonymous (not verified)</span></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-20T17:06:05-04:00" title="Wednesday, May 20, 2026 - 17:06">Wed, 05/20/2026 - 17:06</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-field-spreadsheet field--type-file field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Excel File</div> <div class="field__item"> <span class="file file--mime-application-vnd-openxmlformats-officedocument-spreadsheetml-sheet file--x-office-spreadsheet"> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/system/files/trades/USBS/CMS_USBS_2026_05_20.xlsx" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet">CMS_USBS_2026_05_20.xlsx</a></span> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-trades-summary field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Trades Summary</div> <div class="field__items"> <div class="field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--trade-summary paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="field field--name-field-type field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Type</div> <div class="field__item">Fixed Income</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-horizon field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Horizon</div> <div class="field__item">Cyclical</div> </d

Trades

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Trades</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Product</div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/gis/home" hreflang="en">Global Investment Strategy</a></div> </div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/481" title="View user profile.">chanhyuck.lee@…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-20T16:48:40-04:00" title="Wednesday, May 20, 2026 - 16:48">Wed, 05/20/2026 - 16:48</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-field-spreadsheet field--type-file field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Excel File</div> <div class="field__item"> <span class="file file--mime-application-vnd-openxmlformats-officedocument-spreadsheetml-sheet file--x-office-spreadsheet"> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/system/files/2026-05/GIS_Trades_2026_05_20v2_marketclose.xlsx" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet">GIS_Trades_2026_05_20v2_marketclose.xlsx</a></span> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-trades-summary field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Trades Summary</div> <div class="field__items"> <div class="field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--trade-summary paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="field field--name-field-type field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Type</div> <div class="field__item">Equities</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-horizon field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <

European Autos Stall

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">European Autos Stall</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/din/home" hreflang="en">Daily Insights</a></div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/123321" title="View user profile.">gabriel.gossel…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-20T16:14:39-04:00" title="Wednesday, May 20, 2026 - 16:14">Wed, 05/20/2026 - 16:14</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-published-at field--type-published-at field--label-hidden field__item"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-20T16:51:00-04:00" title="Wednesday, May 20, 2026 - 16:51">20 May 2026</time> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-authors field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item">7376</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-primary-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/europe" hreflang="en">Europe</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/auto-manufacturers" hreflang="en">Auto Manufacturers</a></div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-publication field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/taxonomy/term/1946" hreflang="en">Market Focus</a></div>

Back To The Upside Down?

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Back To The Upside Down?</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/din/home" hreflang="en">Daily Insights</a></div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/123321" title="View user profile.">gabriel.gossel…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T16:30:26-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 16:30">Tue, 05/19/2026 - 16:30</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-published-at field--type-published-at field--label-hidden field__item"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T17:15:00-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 17:15">19 May 2026</time> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-authors field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item">1231</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-primary-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/equities" hreflang="en">Equities</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/fixed-income" hreflang="en">Fixed Income</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/correlations" hreflang="en">Correlations</a></div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-publication field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/taxonomy/term/2021" hreflang="en">Cross-Asset Focus</a></div>

Parity And Fade

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Parity And Fade</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/din/home" hreflang="en">Daily Insights</a></div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/123321" title="View user profile.">gabriel.gossel…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T16:21:53-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 16:21">Tue, 05/19/2026 - 16:21</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-published-at field--type-published-at field--label-hidden field__item"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T17:15:00-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 17:15">19 May 2026</time> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-authors field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item">7381</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-primary-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/canada" hreflang="en">Canada</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/australia" hreflang="en">Australia</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/currencies" hreflang="en">Currencies</a></div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-publication field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/taxonomy/term/1946" hreflang="en">Market Focus</a></div>

Trades

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Trades</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Product</div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/usbs/home" hreflang="en">US Bond Strategy</a></div> </div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><span>Anonymous (not verified)</span></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T16:18:09-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 16:18">Tue, 05/19/2026 - 16:18</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-field-spreadsheet field--type-file field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Excel File</div> <div class="field__item"> <span class="file file--mime-application-vnd-openxmlformats-officedocument-spreadsheetml-sheet file--x-office-spreadsheet"> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/system/files/trades/USBS/CMS_USBS_2026_05_19.xlsx" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet">CMS_USBS_2026_05_19.xlsx</a></span> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-trades-summary field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Trades Summary</div> <div class="field__items"> <div class="field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--trade-summary paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="field field--name-field-type field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Type</div> <div class="field__item">Fixed Income</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-horizon field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Horizon</div> <div class="field__item">Cyclical</div> </div

Canada Inflation: Still Looking Through

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Canada Inflation: Still Looking Through</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/din/home" hreflang="en">Daily Insights</a></div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/123321" title="View user profile.">gabriel.gossel…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T16:03:17-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 16:03">Tue, 05/19/2026 - 16:03</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-published-at field--type-published-at field--label-hidden field__item"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T17:15:00-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 17:15">19 May 2026</time> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-authors field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item">1231</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-primary-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/canada" hreflang="en">Canada</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/inflation" hreflang="en">Inflation</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/economy" hreflang="en">Economy</a></div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-publication field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/taxonomy/term/1956" hreflang="en">Country Focus</a></div>

Iran’s Tipping Point?

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Iran’s Tipping Point?</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/din/home" hreflang="en">Daily Insights</a></div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/123321" title="View user profile.">gabriel.gossel…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T15:55:12-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 15:55">Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:55</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-published-at field--type-published-at field--label-hidden field__item"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T17:15:00-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 17:15">19 May 2026</time> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-authors field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item">1231</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-primary-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/iran" hreflang="en">Iran</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/oil" hreflang="en">Oil</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/commodities" hreflang="en">Commodities</a></div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-publication field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/taxonomy/term/1941" hreflang="en">Today's Pick</a></div>

Australia, Squares Up!

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Australia, Squares Up!</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item">GeoMacro Strategy</div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/1266" title="View user profile.">alexios.katina…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T14:12:22-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 14:12">Tue, 05/19/2026 - 14:12</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-field-publication field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/taxonomy/term/2046" hreflang="en">Beta Report</a></div> <div class="field field--name-field-authors field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item">7531</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-published-at field--type-published-at field--label-hidden field__item"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T14:55:05-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 14:55">19 May 2026</time> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-all-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/australia" hreflang="en">Australia</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/commodities" hreflang="en">Commodities</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/topic/geopolitics" hreflang="en">Geopolitics</a></div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-featured-image field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><article class="media m

China’s Investment Slump, US Midterm Math and the Bond‑Equity Crosscurrents

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">China’s Investment Slump, US Midterm Math and the Bond‑Equity Crosscurrents</span> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><h2>Top Takeaways</h2> <ul> <li>China’s April data reinforce Jing’s view that a <strong>collapse in investment</strong> is the main 2026 growth risk; she expects any mid‑year support to target infrastructure rather than consumption.</li> <li>In the UK, Robert sees stabilized inflation expectations and weakening labor momentum; a summer BoE hike is plausible if oil spikes, but three hikes priced look like a ceiling.</li> <li>The bond sell‑off is primarily tied to oil and inflation risks, with US real yields rising; a competing view emphasizes fiscal risk and Fed‑chair uncertainty, and warns bond bears often end only after an equity drawdown.</li> <li>Noah characterizes equities as rotation, not capitulation, and prefers cyclicals and energy as inflation trades while acknowledging multiple pressure from tighter financial conditions.</li> <li>Jonathan and Matthew argue yield pressure persists if Hormuz remains effectively shut; Matt’s model favors a 51–49 GOP Senate but he leans to a Democratic upset, with potential 2027 fiscal consolidation as a disinflationary surprise.</li> </ul> <h2>China Growth Downdraft and Policy Outlook <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/blu/replay/134824326?t=186">(00:03:06–00:07:55)</a></h2> <p>Jing argues the <strong>collapse in investment</strong> remains the dominant drag in 2026, consistent with April’s weak prints across retail sales, industrial production and renewed property contraction. She attributes fading Q1 momentum to tight central oversight of local officials that discourages borrowing for infrastructure, and to manufacturing overcapacity built over the past four years. Strong headline exports do not translate into household income

Trades

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Trades</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Product</div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/cpt/home" hreflang="en">Counterpoint</a></div> </div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/164821" title="View user profile.">nethmal.chandr…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T10:47:19-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 10:47">Tue, 05/19/2026 - 10:47</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-field-spreadsheet field--type-file field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Excel File</div> <div class="field__item"> <span class="file file--mime-application-vnd-openxmlformats-officedocument-spreadsheetml-sheet file--x-office-spreadsheet"> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/system/files/2026-05/CPT_Trades_05_19_2026_0.xlsx" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet">CPT_Trades_05_19_2026_0.xlsx</a></span> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-trades-summary field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Trades Summary</div> <div class="field__items"> <div class="field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--trade-summary paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="field field--name-field-type field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Type</div> <div class="field__item">Commodities</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-horizon field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Horizon</

Trades

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Trades</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Product</div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/gmac/home" hreflang="en">GeoMacro Strategy</a></div> </div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><a class="username" href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/user/7476" title="View user profile.">jose.yanes@bca…</a></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T10:41:06-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 10:41">Tue, 05/19/2026 - 10:41</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-field-spreadsheet field--type-file field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Excel File</div> <div class="field__item"> <span class="file file--mime-application-vnd-openxmlformats-officedocument-spreadsheetml-sheet file--x-office-spreadsheet"> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/system/files/2026-05/CMS_GMAC%20Trades_7.xlsx" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet">CMS_GMAC Trades_7.xlsx</a></span> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-trades-summary field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Trades Summary</div> <div class="field__items"> <div class="field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--trade-summary paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="field field--name-field-type field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Type</div> <div class="field__item">Equities</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-horizon field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Horizon</div>

Trades

<span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Trades</span> <div class="field field--name-field-product field--type-entity-reference field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Product</div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/site/cis/home" hreflang="en">China Investment Strategy</a></div> </div> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><span>Anonymous (not verified)</span></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden"><time class="datetime" datetime="2026-05-19T10:36:56-04:00" title="Tuesday, May 19, 2026 - 10:36">Tue, 05/19/2026 - 10:36</time> </span> <div class="field field--name-field-spreadsheet field--type-file field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Excel File</div> <div class="field__item"> <span class="file file--mime-application-vnd-openxmlformats-officedocument-spreadsheetml-sheet file--x-office-spreadsheet"> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/system/files/trades/CIS/CIS%20trades_2026_05_19.xlsx" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet">CIS trades_2026_05_19.xlsx</a></span> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-trades-summary field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Trades Summary</div> <div class="field__items"> <div class="field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--trade-summary paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="field field--name-field-type field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Type</div> <div class="field__item">Equities</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-horizon field--type-list-integer field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Horizon</div> <div class="field__item">Tactical</div>

Trades

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